History Predictions 2024 (Later Modern) for Leaving Cert Higher Level

Updated January 2024

The Later Modern History course for the Leaving Cert is very broad, with a maximum of 12 possible topics to cover, each with multiple sub topics. Often, this intimidates students and makes it difficult to know where to start when it comes to revision. It is possible however, by examining past papers, and the key points in the textbooks, to narrow down your topics of study. It is important to note that while these predictions are based on the past papers, nothing is set in stone and any attempts to shorten the course carry some risk.

You may also like H1 History Notes for Leaving Cert (€).

Contents of the LC History paper

    • Every year, the general contents of the paper are the same. There will always be:
    • Section 1: The Document question, this year relating to Dictatorship and Democracy in Europe, 1920 – 1945
      • All parts must be answered

     

    • Section 2: Ireland, containing 4 questions each on
    1. Ireland and the Union, 1815 – 1870
    2. Movements for political and social reform, 1870 – 1914
    3. The pursuit of sovereignty and the impact of partition, 1912 – 1949
    4. Politics and Society in Northern Ireland, 1949 – 1993
    5. Government, Economy and Society in Ireland 1949-1989

     

    • Section 3: Europe and the Wider World, containing 4 questions each on
    1. Nationalism and state formation in Europe, 1815 – 1871
    2. Nation States and international tensions, 1871 – 1920
    3. Division and realignment in Europe, 1945 – 1992
    4. European retreat from empire and the aftermath, 1945 – 1990
    5. The United States and the World 1945-1989

     

    • Since the pandemic, students have been given more choice:
    1. Candidates may answer the paper in the usual way, if they wish.
    2. OR
      • Section 1: answer the DBQ as normal.
      • Sections 2 and 3: answer three questions from any two topics in Section 2: Ireland and Section 3: Europe and the Wider World. This means that candidates would answer two questions from one of their chosen topics.
      • If they choose to do such, a candidate could decide to answer any one of the following combinations:
      • Two answers from one Irish topic and one answer from a topic in Europe and the Wider World.
      • One answer from one Irish topic and two answers from one European topic.
      • All three answers from two topics in Europe and the Wider World
    3. This means it is possible for students to solely focus on two of the eleven topics and have an in-depth knowledge of all case studies and major events/characters from those topics, as well as having quotes prepared from major historical figures in that time. However, this can of course be risky if the questions asked are not to their liking. Therefore, students should have additional essays prepared for those two topics in this instance as they would have to answer two of the four options in one topic on the day.

LC History Document

The first question you will encounter is the Document question. It is possible that any one of the three subjects could come up. These are:

  • Stalin’s show trials (Never examined)
  • The Nuremberg Rallies (Last examined in 2016)
  • The Jarrow March (Last examined in 2017)

Students often disregard the previous year’s document as it is unlikely to reappear in two consecutive years. However, this should not be done in 2024, as Dictatorship and Democracy has not been examined as a Document question since 2017. It could be suggested that Stalin’s show trials is the most likely topic as it has never appeared as a Document question, but all three topics should be studied in depth.

This section is worth 100 marks, being one third of the total. High marks can easily be accumulated here if you understand the context of the topics and know your mini essays well. Practicing exam questions can also be very helpful for questions 1, 2 and 3.

Know your perspectives

An easy way to narrow down the history course is to only focus on two out of the three perspectives for each topic. Every topic is broken up into three perspectives:

  • Society and Economy
  • Politics and Administration
  • Religion, Culture and Science

As per the official course syllabus, these perspectives are as follows:

(Topics in bold are those that are most common on exam papers)

Society and Economy Politics and Administration Religion, Culture, Science
Ireland and the Union The Irish countryside, 1815; economic crisis, 1815-1850; the Famine; the post-Famine economy; emigration; education; impact of the railways; industrial development in Belfast Administrative and political structures under the Act of Union. O’Connell – the campaigns for Emancipation and Repeal, achievements; the Tithe War; the Poor Law; Young Ireland. Government responses to Famine. Electoral reform; sectarianism in politics; Fenianism; Liberal reforms. Developments in the creation of cultural and religious identities; the creative arts; developments in science and technology
Movements for political and social reform Land agitation and land reform. Unionisation of the working classes. The Co-operative Movement. Industrial development in Belfast: the shipyards. Educational reforms: schools and universities. The Home Rule movement: origins; development; leadership – Butt, Parnell, Redmond. The Suffrage movement. The first Sinn Féin party. The Irish Volunteers. Unionism and the Ulster Question. The GAA Cultural revivals: the Gaelic League, the Anglo-Irish Literary Revival. The consolidation of Catholic identity
The pursuit of sovereignty and the impact of partition Impact of partition on economy and society; impact of world economic crisis; from free trade to protectionism; impact of World War II;  The Home Rule Bill, 1912-1914. The impact of World War I; the 1916 Rising; the rise of the second Sinn Féin party; the 1918 election; the War of Independence; Partition;Treaty and Civil War. State building and the consolidation of democracy; from Free State to Republic. Northern Ireland – the Unionist Party in power. The impact of World War II, North and South. Anglo-Irish relations. State and culture, North and South: language, religion and education; promotion of cultural identity
The Irish Diaspora The main trends in Irish emigration by origin, destination and type of emigrant; their occupations and where they settled in the country of immigration: pre-1845; the Famine decade, 1845-1855; 1855-1914; 1920-1966. Increased restriction and regulation of emigration after 1920. Anti-Irish sentiment in both US and Britain in the 19th century; Irish participation in politics in the USA and in Britain; the Molly Maguires; Irish nationalism as an international force from the Famine to independence; the anti-partition campaign; Ulster Unionist efforts to lobby for international support among Ulster emigrants. Role of Catholic Church and GAA in sustaining a sense of Irishness among emigrants; Irish missionaries in Africa and Asia. Role of Protestant churches in fostering an Ulster Scottish identity. The Orange Order in Canada and Australia. The creation of Irish images through film and music. Links between Ireland and the wider Irish community through tourism and heritage. The impact of John F. Kennedy
Politics and society in Northern Ireland Impact of Welfare State: education, health, housing. Social and economic developments prior to 1969. Impact of the “Troubles”: (a) the economy; (b) society – education, health, housing. From Brookeborough to O’Neill; the Civil Rights movement; emergence of the Provisional IRA; the fall of Stormont; Direct Rule; Republican and Loyalist terrorism; Sunningdale and power-sharing; the Anglo-Irish Agreement, 1985. The Republic – responses to the “Troubles”. The Downing Street Declaration, 1993. Religious affiliation and cultural identity; ecumenism; cultural responses to the “Troubles”.
Government, Economy and Society in Ireland, 1949 – 89 Demographic change, Social change, Economic change and the impact of EEC membership. Alternating economic and social policies of governments, Economic planning, Changes in education, health and social welfare, economic issues of the 70s and 80s, Anglo-Irish relations, Ireland’s involvement in the UN and the EEC Attitudes towards the Irish language, the impact of television, the impact of Vatican II, the communications revolution

 

Society and Economy Politics and Administration Religion, Culture and Science
Nationalism and state formation in Europe The changing agricultural economy in the West; serfdom in Russia. Industrialisation: trade unionism and socialism; mass politics. Urban growth and migration Primary education: increased literacy The Germanic lands from Confederation to Empire: the system of Metternich under attack. Autocracy in the East: Balkan nationalism; Greece and Serbia. Italy moves towards unity. The State in France: monarchy, republic and Empire. City planning. Cultural nationalism: music, art, literature and language. The churches and social change: France and Great Britain. Developments in science: electricity, biology and technology
Nation states and international tensions Economic growth and social tensions: industrialisation in Germany and its impact on society; industrialisation and economic crisis in Tsarist Russia; the impact of war on society and economy The Second Reich and the changing balance of power; Anglo- and Franco-German tensions; Bismarck’s foreign policy. The structures of European diplomacy; the New Imperialism and colonial rivalries; Wilhelm II and Weltpolitik. Serbia as a fulcrum of Great Power rivalry. The Second International. The outbreak of war in 1914; the conduct of war; war and revolution; the Peace Settlement Expression of national identity through literature and the arts; the literature of World War I. Church/State tensions in Germany and Italy. Anti-Semitism in France and Russia. Key developments in science, technology and medicine
Dictatorship and democracy in Europe Economic and social problems of the inter-war years, with particular reference to Britain and Germany. The Soviet alternative. Society during World War II: the Home Front; rationing/evacuees; refugees; collaboration/resistance. Anti-Semitism and the Holocaust Origins and growth of the fascist regimes in Europe; the Nazi state in peace and war. Communism in Russia: the regimes of Lenin and Stalin; the Stalinist state in peace and war. France: the Third Republic, 1920-1940, and the Vichy state. Wartime alliances, 1939-1945. Nazi propaganda – State control and use of mass media. Church-state relations under Mussolini and Hitler. Anglo-American popular culture in peace and war: radio and cinema. The technology of warfare.
Division and realignment in Europe The Western economies, 1945-1973: the era of economic growth; Marshall Aid; moves towards free trade; immigration; the Welfare State. The Western economies, 1973-1990: impact of the Oil Crisis; recession and the rise in unemployment. The Communist economies: problems and outcomes. Marriage, the family and the changing role of women. Affluence, leisure time and the consumer society Origins of Cold War; division of Germany; “Sovietisation” of Eastern Europe; military alliances; main crises of Cold War; emergence of reform movements in Eastern Europe; collapse of Soviet Union; fragmentation and realignment in Europe. Moves towards European unity, 1945-1957; establishment and evolution of EEC. Literature and social criticism, East and West. Changing patterns in religious observance. Youth and popular culture (including sport) and the mass media. The impact of (a) advances in the biological sciences (b) nuclear power and (c) the computer
European retreat from empire and the aftermath Economic consequences of the process of de-colonisation; the Lomé Conventions; trade, aid and famine in postcolonial Africa; Julius Nyerere and the policy of ujamaa. Immigration patterns and policies in different European states – Britain, France. Implications of World War II for European role in Asia; independence struggles and the reactions of the European powers (with particular reference to India, Indochina and East Indies); post-independence relations with the colonial power. British withdrawal from Palestine and origins of Arab-Israeli conflict; the Suez Crisis, 1956. Africa – the “winds of change” (with particular reference to Algeria, Nigeria, the Congo, Tanzania and Angola); post-independence relations with the colonial power Tensions between indigenous culture and colonial culture; the spread of Islam and Christianity in Africa; the Islamic faith in Europe; cultural diversity in multi-racial Britain and France; English as a world language; post-colonial literature.
The United States and the World Sources of the US economic boom: the war, public investment and international financing, 1945-1968. The development of the US industrial structure: the multinational corporation, 1945-1968. The Vietnam War; the federal deficit; domestic recession; international competition from Japan and Europe, 1968-1989. Demographic growth; affluence – consumerism, leisure, the role of work, the changing role of women and the family. Troubled affluence: racial conflict, urban poverty, drugs  US politics: structures and tensions – federal government and the states; the separation of powers. The Presidency from Roosevelt to Reagan. Domestic factors in US foreign policy: McCarthyism, the anti-war movement, race relations. US foreign policy, 1945-1972: Berlin, Korea, Cuba,Vietnam. Decline of Cold War certainties, 1973-1989: withdrawal from Vietnam, détente, SALT and Star Wars. 1945-1968: Hollywood – the American Dream; the “red scare”. Collapse of consensus, 1968-1989: youth culture, “counter-culture”, and multiculturalism. Religion in modern American culture; the mass media in modern American culture; mass higher education. Advances in military, space and information technology

 

As there are four questions for each topic, it is highly likely that at least one question from each perspective will come up. As you only have to answer one question under any one topic heading, it is possible to only pick two of these perspectives in each topic to study.

This year, our editor wishes to highlight the below in 2 topics.

The pursuit of sovereignty and the impact of partition

The Eucharistic Congress
– Has come up every year since 2017
– 75 years since Ireland became a republic – could be asked in relation to this
i.e. how were successful were attempts to make an independent Ireland a
catholic society

Impact of World War 2 on Ireland, north and south
– Has come up 3 (South) and 4 (North) times, but not since 2021
– 85 years since the start of WW2 and 80 years since D-Day
– Also 110 years since the start of WW1 – a comparison between the impact
of WW1 and WW2 on Ireland?? (never been asked before)

Irish language
– Came up for the third time in 2023, making it less likely
– However, it’s 100 years since Irish was made compulsory in schools and 25
since Foras na Gaeilge was founded

Anglo-Irish Treaty/Civil War
– Highly predicted in 2022 and 2023 due to 100-year anniversaries but didn’t
come up. Hasn’t come up since 2021/2019, respectively

The United States and the world

The Vietnam War
– The only case study that didn’t come up in 2023
– 50 years since Nixon resigned
– Henry Kissinger, Nixon’s right-hand man died in November 2023 at age 100
– The Vietnam War is the least popular of the case studies however, and
could be saved until 2025, marking the 50-year anniversary of it ending

Race relations
– Has come up in some form in 13 of the last 16 years’ papers
– 30 years since Nelson Mandela’s inauguration

Presidential question or comparison
– Hasn’t come up since 2018 and 2016, respectively
– However, this style was more popular in the past, may be moving away
from this type of question

Technology
– Hasn’t come up since 2018, despite the moon landing coming up in 2018,
2019 and 2023
– Could come up with SALT (50 years since Nixon’s resignation – not a very
strong link)

The Cuban Missile Crisis
– 75 years since the test-ban treaty

Know your case studies

Another way to narrow down the course is to only study the case studies, as highlighted in the standard course textbooks. The case studies are highlighted in order to make obvious the most important parts of the topic, and are therefore very likely to come up. The regularity at which these case studies appear on the papers can also be indicative of larger areas that may come up. For example, the frequency of questions relating to the elections of 1885 and 1886 would suggest that Home Rule is a generally popular topic among the SEC.

The case studies are as follows:

  • Ireland and the Union, 1815 – 1870
    • Private responses to the Famine, 1845 – 1849 (2022,2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2012)
    • The campaign for Catholic Emancipation, 1823 – 1829 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • The Synod of Thurles 1850 and the Romanisation of the Catholic Church (2015, 2014, 2013)
  • Movements for political and social reform, 1870-1914
    • The elections of 1885 and 1886: issues and outcomes (2021, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • Dublin 1913 – Strike and lockout (2023, 2022,2021, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2013)
    • The GAA to 1891 (2023, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012)
  • The pursuit of sovereignty and the impact of partition, 1912-1949
    • The Treaty negotiations, October – December 1921 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2013, 2012)
    • Belfast during World War II (2023, 2021, 2019, 2012)
    • The Eucharistic Congress, 1932 (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2012)
  • The Irish Diaspora, 1840 – 1966
    • Grosse Isle (2019, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • De Valera in America, June 1919 – December 1920 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2016)
    • The Holy Ghost Mission to Nigeria, 1945 – 1966 (2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2013)
  • Politics and society in Northern Ireland, 1949-1993
    • The Sunningdale Agreement and the power-sharing executive, 1973 – 1974 (2023, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • The Coleraine University controversy (2022, 2019, 2016, 2013, 2012)
    • The Apprentice Boys of Derry (2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012)
  • Government, economy and society in Ireland, 1949 – 89
    • The First Programme for Economic Expansion, 1958 – 63 (2017, 2014, 2013)
    • Impact of the EEC on fisheries (2021, 2020, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012)
    • The impact of RTÉ, 1962 – 72 (2021, 2020, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
  • Nationalism and state formation in Europe, 1815-1871
    • The 1848 Revolution in Germany (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • Robert Owen’s model village at New Lanark (2022, 2019, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • Haussmann’s Paris (2023, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013)
  • Nation states and international tensions, 1871-1920
    • The naval policy of Wilhelm II (2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012)
    • Women in the workforce during World War I (2023, 2021, 2017, 2014, 2012)
    • The invention and early history of the motor car (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2013)
  • Dictatorship and democracy in Europe, 1920 – 1945
    • Stalin’s Show Trials (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
    • The Jarrow March, October 1936 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2015, 2014, 2013)
    • The Nuremberg Rallies (This usually features as an aspect of Hitler’s domestic policies)
  • Division and realignment in Europe, 1945-1992
    • The Hungarian Uprising, 1956 (2023, 2021, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2013)
    • The Oil Crisis, 1973 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2016, 2015, 2012)
    • The Second Vatican Council (2021, 2020, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)
  • European retreat from empire and the aftermath, 1945-1990
    • British withdrawal from India, 1945 – 1947 (2023, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2014)
    • The secession of Katanga, 1960 – 1965 (2023, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014)
    • Race relations in France in the 1980s (2023, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015)
  • The USA and the Wider World, 1945-89
    • The Montgomery Bus Boycott 1956 (2023, 2021, 2017, 2015)
    • Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam, 1963-68 (2022, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2014)
    • The Moon Landing 1969 (2023, 2019, 2016, 2014)

** It is very important, as with the Document topic case studies, to have some contextual or background information. These case studies rarely come up independent of related topics. **

Question style

It is important in looking at the past papers that you take notice of the question style usually employed for different topics. For example, when referring to Lyndon B. Johnson and Vietnam, the question commonly asks about his strengths and weaknesses as a president. The same can be said of many of the key figures, as well as whole regimes – another common phrasing of these questions is “How well did X deal with the obstacles/ difficulties that they faced?”. Other topics, such as the GAA and the cultural revival in Ireland, tend to come up in questions that ask you to talk about the impact of certain movements. When writing practice essays, keep these types of questions in mind, and when learning information, make notes of how you can use it to answer these strengths/weaknesses/impacts questions.

Key figures and theme words

When revising, it is very important to look at the key figures and theme words as laid out in most standard textbooks. These are the words and people that will usually come up in the questions, and without a thorough understanding of their significance, questions will be difficult to answer properly. Similarly, the more of these words and names that you can use in your essays, the more likely it is that you will get a high mark. For example, in the case of the United States and the World topic, Lyndon Johnson is a key personality. He regularly comes up in questions regarding the Vietnam War, and without him, it is difficult to write an answer on this topic. Similarly, propaganda is one of the key concepts for Dictatorship and Democracy in Europe, and is an important feature of both Mussolini and Hitler’s domestic policies.

Quotes and dates

As you study each topic, keep a list of short but useful quotes from some of the main figures and/or historians. Even if you have two or three general-use quotes for an essay or topic, they will come in handy. As for dates, try your best to learn the major years, and specific dates if possible. If you struggle with this however, don’t stress too much about it as they’re not the most important aspect of the exam. Just focus on having enough information to answer the question.

And finally, there is no point in learning off full essays as there is no guarantee that you will be able to use them. Writing practice essays is great for revision and building up speed, but learning essays word-for-word takes up valuable time and brain space. You are much better off deciding on some key areas to revise, and learning them well enough that you can handle any kind of question relating to it.

Current affairs: commemoration and anniversaries

It is worth noting that when setting the paper, examiners can sometimes be influenced by current affairs, especially if the exam takes place in a year of commemoration. In 2016, for example, a question about the 1916 Rising came up, even though it does not usually appear alone in questions. Some events with anniversaries in 2024 include:

100 years since Lenin’s death

75 years since NATO was created

30 years since Nelson Mandela’s inauguration

80 years since D-Day

110 years since the start of WW1

85 years since the start of WW2

100 years since Dawe’s Plan to recover Germany economically

50 years since Nixon’s resignation

75 years since the test-ban treaty

100 years since the fascists won the majority in the Italian general election, and since Giacomo Matteotti spoke out against fascism and was kidnapped and murdered soon afterwards

100 years since the birth of Jimmy Carter

100 years since the Army Mutiny

100 years since Irish became compulsory in school

75 years since Truman was sworn in for a full term

75 years since Ireland became an independent republic

75 years since the Soviet Union lifted the Berlin blockade

50 years since the Dublin and Monaghan bombings

50 years since a bomb exploded in Westminster Hall, planted by the IRA

50 years since the Northern Ireland executive came into operation and later collapsed

50 years since the Ulster Council Workers’ strike

25 years since Foras na Gaeilge was established under the Good Friday Agreement to promote Irish language

Henry Kissinger died in November 2023 at age 100

While anniversaries do not guarantee that a topic will come up, it may be beneficial to take particular note of some events that have big anniversaries, such as 50th, 100th or 200th, in 2024.

History Predictions 2020 (Later Modern) for Leaving Cert
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